Pump Prices: Cheap Petrol Comes With A Warning

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 19 Desember 2014 | 22.12

Tumbling oil prices are resulting in lower petrol costs, but there are warnings the good news for drivers may not last.

With prices falling by more than 40% since June's high of $111 a barrel, there have been an increasing number of reports suggesting petrol prices across the UK could soon fall below £1 per litre - the lowest level since the end of May 2009.

Experts at the RAC believe petrol could fall to 99p a litre next year, while economists at Goldman Sachs also believe petrol could fall close to £1.

But AA president Edmund King insists this possibility remains "remote".

He said: "A 6.6p-a-litre drop in the price of petrol releases a potential £3m-a-day switch of consumer spending from fuel forecourts to other businesses.

"It will also lower the cost of transporting goods, hopefully also to be passed on to customers."

Mr King went on: "However, the parallels with the 2008 crash, albeit that was a market in freefall while this one has been engineered by OPEC and could be stopped any time, carry a warning from the ghost of Christmas past.

"In 2009, a new year brought a new assessment of the market and pump prices started to rise again on January 5."

Analysis by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also suggests petrol prices are unlikely to fall below £1-a-litre in the coming months.

But while the ONS said the price consumers pay at the pumps for petrol and diesel were "strongly related to the price of crude oil", it highlighted that price changes were "less volatile and the effect of changes in crude oil prices are delayed".

Ian Taylor, chief executive and president of Vitol, the world's largest oil trading company, told Sky News' Ian King Live that although the future was difficult to predict he believes the market "will steady up".

He said: "As you know oil traders are pretty useless at predicting price, but we sort of feel that inevitably at these price levels that several areas of the world will begin to cut back on capex (capital expenditure) and we'll see some reductions in supply and a big transfer of income to the consumers - hopefully lower petrol prices in the UK etc - and that will increase demand.

"We feel at the current prices and with Brent at $60 a barrel we should begin to see some stability, but oil has been a lot lower than this and a lot higher so it's difficult to predict just at this moment - but I do begin to believe the market will begin to steady up."

He added: "It's a pretty big tax cut for every single consumer in the world and it's a huge transfer of income from oil producers to world consumers. It's pretty positive for the UK, Europe and other big consuming countries around the globe."

Petrol pump prices have plunged in the last month with the mid-November to mid-December fall the third biggest in 25 years, according to the AA.

The motoring group said that between mid-November and mid-December UK average petrol prices fell 6.6p to 116.32p a litre.

Only the October-November 2008 fall of 11.5p a litre and the August-September 2006 dip of 7.9p have been greater than the most recent decline.

The AA also said that average diesel prices have fallen 5.27p a litre to 122.16p over the mid-November to mid-December 2014 period.

And the fall does not include the very latest 2p-a-litre petrol reduction by the four biggest supermarkets which took effect on Wednesday.

Currently, south west England has the cheapest petrol, at an average of 116.1p a litre, while East Anglia has the dearest, at 117.1p.

The cheapest diesel is to be found in Northern Ireland, at 121.8p a litre, with the most-expensive in Scotland, at 122.7p a litre.


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