Britain could see 50,000 immigrants arrive every year from Romania and Bulgaria once access restrictions are lifted, campaigners have warned.
Research indicates up to 250,000 people from the two countries could come to the UK in the first five years once the rules are changed.
The figure, equal to the population of Newcastle, comes from Migration Watch UK who assessed three different methods of predicting the likely arrivals between 2014 and 2018.
It was revealed after the coalition refused to supply an estimate for the number of people who could come to Britain from the end of December.
Temporary curbs were put in place against Romanians and Bulgarians in 2005 to protect the British labour market but they expire in December and EU law stops them being extended.
Migration Watch chairman Sir Andrew Green said: "It is not good enough to duck making an estimate of immigration from Romania and Bulgaria.
"It is likely to be on a scale that will have significant consequences for housing and public services."
The estimate could be considerably higher if a further one million Romanians in both Spain and Italy decided to transfer to Britain, the campaigners added.
Income per head in Bulgaria and Romania is about one fifth of that in the UK, similar to Poland in 2004, Migration Watch said, while youth unemployment is also high.
With youth unemployment in Spain at 56%, Italy at 37% and France at 27%, the campaign group said it expects only Germany and the Netherlands are likely destinations other than Britain.
David Cameron insisted earlier this week that it was currently impossible to predict immigration levels from Bulgaria and Romania when access restrictions are lifted at the end of this year.
The Prime Minister backed Communities Secretary Eric Pickles, who said that nobody knew how many people would come from those two countries.
But Mr Cameron said there was a "big difference" between what happened when Poland acceded and immigration far exceeded expectations and the situation with Bulgaria and Romania.
Migration Watch said its analysis found that the International Passenger Survey, the basis of the official immigration statistics, only picked up half of the East European immigration to the UK.
Sarah Mulley, associate director at think tank the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), said Migration Watch had produced "high" estimates.
She pointed out that opening labour markets to Romania and Bulgaria had been done gradually and it would therefore be "very surprising" if net migration was on the scale predicted.
A Home Office spokesman said: "We are working to cut net migration from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands by the end of this Parliament and our tough new rules are already taking effect with overall net migration falling by a quarter in the past year.
"In terms of European immigration, we are working closely with other government departments to look at the pull factors that may encourage EU nationals, including those from Bulgaria and Romania, to come to the UK.
"The Government has made clear it will always apply transitional controls on new EU member states and will continue work to cut out abuse of free movement."
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